{"id":3444,"date":"2012-02-11T18:38:34","date_gmt":"2012-02-11T23:38:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/serony.com\/?p=3444"},"modified":"2018-07-25T23:04:35","modified_gmt":"2018-07-26T03:04:35","slug":"cold-my-own-cold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/serony.com\/ken\/2012\/02\/11\/cold-my-own-cold\/","title":{"rendered":"Cold, my own cold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>\u00b6\u00a0 \uc624\ub79c\ub9cc\uc5d0 \ub0a0\uc528\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c<\/strong><\/span> \uac83\uc774 <strong>\uc7a1\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ub274\uc2a4\ub97c \ube44\uc9d1\uace0<\/strong> \uace0\uac1c\ub97c \ub0b4\ubc00\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uc774\uac83\ub3c4 \uc0ac\uc2e4 \ub180\ub784\ub9cc\ud55c \uac83\uc774 \ud558\ub098\ub3c4 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc624\ub798 \uc0b0 &#8216;\uae30\uc5b5\uacfc \uacbd\ud5d8\uc758 \ucd95\uc801&#8217; \ud0d3\uc778\uac00.. \uc544\ubb34\ub9ac \uc9c4\uc9dc \uaca8\uc6b8, 1\uc6d4\uc774 \ubcc4\ubcfc\uc77c \uc5c6\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, 2\uc6d4\uacfc 3\uc6d4\uc774 \uaca8\uc6b8\uc758 \uc9c4\uba74\ubaa9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec \uc904 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc0dd\uac01\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc744 \uc548\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc9c0\ub09c 20\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \uadf8\ub807\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub7f0 \ucd94\uc138\uc758 \uc608\uc678\uac00 \ubc14\ub85c \uc791\ub144 \ud55c \ud574\uc600\ub2e4. <strong>\uc88c\uc6b0\uc9c0\uac04<\/strong>, \uaf43\ub4e4\uc774 \ub9cc\ubc1c\ud558\ub824 &#8216;\uc644\uc804\ud788&#8217; \uc900\ube44\uac00 \ub418\uc5b4\uac00\ub358 \ucc28\uc5d0 \ub4dc\ub514\uc5b4 \uc2dc\ubca0\ub9ac\uc544\uc758 \ubc14\ub78c(\uc774\uacf3\uc740 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4\uc758 \ubc14\ub78c, <em>Alberta Clipper<\/em>?)\uc744 \ub290\ub07c\uac8c \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298\uc740 \ub0ae\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube59\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9f4\ub3cc\uba70 \ub0b4\uc77c\uc740 \ub4dc\ub514\uc5b4 (\uc12d\uc528) \uc601\ud558 10\ub3c4? \uc774\ub7f0 \ub54c\uc5d0 \ub098\ub294 \uc624\ub79c\ub9cc\uc5d0 <strong>\ub2e4\ub978 \uc885\ub958\uc758 cold, \uac10\uae30<\/strong>\ub85c \uace0\uc0dd\uc744 \ud558\uac8c \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc0ac\uc2e4\uc740 \uac10\uae30\ub780 \uac83\uc774 \uace0\uc0dd\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \uc544\ub2c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uac70\ucd94\uc7a5\uc2a4\ub7fd\ub2e4\uace0\ub098 \ud560\uae4c.. \ud2b9\ud788 <strong>\ud3b8\ub3c4\uc120\uc774 \ubd93\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc81c\uc77c \uace0\uc5ed<\/strong>\uc774\uace0, \ub2e4\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\ud589\ub418\ub294 \ucf67\ubb3c,\ub208\ubb3c..\uc7ac\ucc44\uae30.. \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uce68.. \uc6b0\ub9ac \uc2e0\ubd80\ub2d8 \ub9d0\uc500\ub300\ub85c &#8216;\ucf54\ub97c \ub9cc\uc9c0\uc9c0 \ub9d0\ub77c&#8217;\ub294 \uacbd\uace0\ub97c \ubb34\uc2dc\ud588\ub358 \ubaa8\uc591\uc774\ub2e4. \ub354 \uc2ec\uc220\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubcd1\uc73c\ub85c \uace0\uc0dd\ud558\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \uc560\uad50 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uac10\uae30\ub098 \ub3c5\uac10\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc123\ubd88\ub9ac \uc548\uc2ec\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4 \uadf8\ub807\ub2e4. 1994\ub144 \ud070 \ub538 \uc0c8\ub85c\ub2c8\uac00 &#8216;\uc870\uadf8\ub9cc&#8217; \uac10\uae30\ub85c \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \uac83\uc774, <strong>&#8216;\uac70\uc758 \uc0ac\uacbd&#8217;\uc744 \ud5e4\ub9e4\ub358 \uc545\ubabd<\/strong>\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub358 \uac83\uc744 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\uba74 \ub354\uc6b1 \uadf8\ub807\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \ub098\uc640 \uac19\uc740 <strong>60+ \ub098\uc774<\/strong>\uc5d0\ub294 \ub354\uc6b1 \uadf8\ub807\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u00b6\u00a0 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub4e4\uc758 \uc0ac\ud68c\uc801,<\/span> \uacfc\ud559\uc801, \ubb38\uba85\uc801\uc778 \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc608\uce21<\/strong>\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc810\uc7c1\uc774\ub4e4\uc758 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub118\uc5b4\uc11c \uc544\uc8fc <strong>\uc2ec\uac01\ud55c &#8216;\ud559\ubb38&#8217;\uc758 \uc601\uc5ed<\/strong>\uc774\ub2e4. \ubbf8\ub798\ud559\ud68c \uac19\uc740 \uacf3\uc740 \uc815\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud559\ud68c\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uac04\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\ud559\uc801\uc778 \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc5f0\uad6c\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8\uccb4\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc758 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \ubcf4\uba74, \ucd5c\uc18c\ud55c \ub0b4\uac00 \ubcf4\uae30\uc5d0, \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 &#8216;\uacf5\uc0c1\uc801&#8217;\uc778 \ub290\ub08c\uc744 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e4\ub978 \ub9d0\ub85c \ud558\uba74 \uadf8 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c <strong>\ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \ubbf8\ub9ac \ub290\ub07c\uae30\uac00 \ud798\ub4e4\ub2e4<\/strong>\ub294 \uac83\uc77c\uae4c. \uadf8\ub4e4\uc740 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \uacfc\uac70\uc640 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0 \uadfc\uac70\ud574\uc11c \ucd94\uce21(<strong><em>extrapolation<\/em><\/strong>) \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ud55c\ub9c8\ub514\ub85c \uc218\ud559\uc801(\ud1b5\uacc4,\ud655\ub960)\uc778 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc4f0\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uba70\uce60 \uc804\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uadf8\ub7f0 \ub958\uc758 \uc18c\uc2dd \uc911\uc5d0: <strong>\uc778\uac04\uc758 \uc218\uba85\uc774 150\uc138 \uc774\uc0c1 200\uc138\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub420 \ub0a0\uc774 &#8216;\uba40\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4&#8217;<\/strong> \ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uac83\uc740 <em>major<\/em> network news\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf8 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uc11c \uc2e0\ube59\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uacfc\uc5f0 \uadf8\ub7f4\uae4c?<\/p>\n<p>\ubd84\uba85\ud788 \uc9c0\uae08 \uc9c4\ud589\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uacfc\ud559\uc801 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub4e4 \uc911\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc88b\uc740 \uc608\ub4e4\uc744 \uace8\ub77c\uc11c \ub098\uc628 <em>best case<\/em>\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc218\uba85\uc774 \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \uac83, \uc6b0\uc120\uc740 \ubc18\uac00\uc6b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub4e4\ub9ac\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\uac83\ub3c4 \uacfc\uc5f0 \uadf8\ub807\uac8c \uac04\ub2e8\ud788 &#8216;\ubb34\uc870\uac74&#8217; \uc88b\uae30\ub9cc \ud560\uae4c? 50\ub144 \uc804\uc758 \ubbf8\ub798\ud559\uc758 &#8216;\ud568\uc815&#8217;\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74\uc11c \uc774\uac83\ub3c4 <strong><em>not so fast!<\/em><\/strong>\uc758 \ud55c \uc608\uac00 \ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744\uae4c \uc0dd\uac01\uc744 \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \uc0ac\uc9c4\uc740 <strong>1950\ub144\ub300<\/strong>\uc5d0 &#8217;50\ub144 \ud6c4\uc778 <strong>2004\ub144\uc758 home computer&#8217;<\/strong>\ub97c \uc0c1\uc0c1, \uc608\uce21\ud558\uace0 RAND corporation(\ub2f9\uc2dc\uc758<em> IBM<\/em>)\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc124\uba85\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74, \uac00\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uc4f0\ub294 \uc774 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130\ub294 <em>teletype terminal<\/em>\uacfc <em><strong>FORTRAN<\/strong><\/em>\uc744 \uc4f8 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub418\uc5b4\uc788\ub2e4. \uc6c3\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ubabb\ud560 \ubbf8\ub798\ud559\uc758 \uacb0\uc815\uccb4\uac00 \uc544\ub2d0\uae4c? \ubbf8\ub798\ud559 \ud568\uc815\uc758 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \ucf00\uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uace0 \uadf8\ub0e5 \uc6c3\uc744\uae4c?\u00a0\uc774\uac83\uc758 <strong>\uce58\uba85\uc801\uc778 \uacfc\uc624<\/strong>\ub294 \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \ub144 \ud6c4\uc5d0 \ucd9c\ud604\ud560 <strong>\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4<\/strong>(<em>solid state, transistor, IC<\/em>)\ub97c \uc804\ud600 \uc608\uce21 \ubabb\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"mceTemp\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/serony.com\/ken\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/future-homepc.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3446  aligncenter\" title=\"future-home-pc\" src=\"http:\/\/serony.com\/ken\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/future-homepc.png\" alt=\"future-home-pc\" width=\"480\" \/><\/a>1950\ub144\ub300\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc0c1\ud55c 2000\ub144\ub300\uc758 \uac00\uc815\uc6a9 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>\u00b6\u00a0 \uc5bc\ub9c8 \uc804\uc5d0<\/strong> <\/span>&#8216;\uc5bc\ub9c8 \ub0a8\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc591\uc2ec, \ud76c\ub9dd&#8217; <em>PBS-TV<\/em> \uc5d0\uc11c \uc791\ub144 3\uc6d4 12\uc77c \uacbd\uc758 \uc77c\ubcf8 <strong>\ub3c4\ud638\ucfe0(\u6771\u5317)\uc9c0\ubc29<\/strong>\uc758 \uc9c0\uc9c4,\uc4f0\ub098\ubbf8(\ud574\uc77c), \uc787\ub2ec\uc544 \uc0dd\uae34 <strong>\ud6c4\ucfe0\uc2dc\ub9c8 \ub2e4\uc774\uc774\uce58(\u798f\u5cf6 \u5927\u4e00)<\/strong> \uc6d0\uc790\ub825 \ubc1c\uc804\uc18c(\uc6d0\uc804) \uc0ac\uace0(<em>nuclear meltdown<\/em>)\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ud070 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\uc740 \uc6d0\uc804\uc758 \uc548\uc804\uacfc \ubbf8\ub798\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c <strong><em>FRONTLINE<\/em><\/strong> (\uc8fc\ub85c \ubb38\uc81c\uc810 \ubd84\uc11d \uc911\uc2ec) \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8, <strong><em>Nuclear Aftershock<\/em><\/strong> \uc774 \ubc29\uc601\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc740 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc7ac\ub09c\uc758 1\uc8fc\ub144\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucd94\uc5b4 \uc81c\uc791\ud55c \ub4ef \ud55c\ub370, \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c \ube44\uadf9\uc801\uc778 \uc778\uba85(<strong>18,000\uba85 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc0ac\ub9dd<\/strong>),\uc7ac\uc0b0 \ud53c\ud574\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uc6d0\uc804\uc0ac\uace0\uc758 \ud6c4\uc720\uc99d\uacfc \uadf8\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uacf5\uae09\ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \uac1d\uad00\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74\uc11c \uc0dd\uac01\ud55c \uac83 \uc911\uc5d0\ub294: \uc778\uac04\uc774 \uc6d0\uc790\ub825\uc744 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc548\uc804\ud558\uac8c <em>control<\/em>\ud560 \uc218 <strong>\ub2a5\ub825\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4<\/strong>, \uc6d0\uc790\ub825\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uacfc \uadf8\uac83\uc744 \ub300\uccb4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uac00 \uc0dd\uac01\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc801\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \uc6d0\uc804\ub4e4\uc774 \uc0dd\uac01\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub35c \uc548\uc804\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc740 \ube44\ub85d \uc4f0\ub098\ubbf8\uc758 \uc704\ud611\uc774 \uc801\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uadf8\uac83\uacfc \ub9de\uba39\ub294 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uc0ac\uace0 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub4e0\uc9c0 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 <strong>&#8216;\uc74c\uc0b0&#8217;\ud55c \ud604\uc2e4<\/strong> \uac19\uc740 \uac83\ub4e4\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc9c0\ub09c \ud574\uc758 \uc0ac\uace0 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub3c5\uc77c\uc758 &#8216;\uc131\uae09\ud574 \ubcf4\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud558\ub294&#8217; <strong>100% \uc6d0\uc804 \ud3ec\uae30\uc120\uc5b8<\/strong>\uacfc \uc6d0\uc804\ub300\uc2e0\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc778 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \ubc1c\uc804\uc18c\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 <strong>\uc870\uae08\uc740 \uc758\uc544\ud55c \uacb0\uc815<\/strong>\uac19\uc740 \uac83\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacb0\uc815\uc740 &#8216;\uc9c0\uad6c\uc628\ub09c\ud654 \ubb38\uc81c&#8217; \ud574\uacb0\uc5d0 \uc815\uba74\uc73c\ub85c \ub300\uacb0\ud558\ub294 \uacb0\uc815\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub798\uc800\ub798, \uc774 &#8216;\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0&#8217; \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \ucc38 \uac04\ub2e8\ud55c \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc\uac00 \ubcf4\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/video.pbs.org\/viralplayer\/2187854464?chapter=1\" width=\"480\" height=\"348\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless=\"\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00b6\u00a0 \uc624\ub79c\ub9cc\uc5d0 \ub0a0\uc528\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \uac83\uc774 \uc7a1\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ub274\uc2a4\ub97c \ube44\uc9d1\uace0 \uace0\uac1c\ub97c \ub0b4\ubc00\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uc774\uac83\ub3c4 \uc0ac\uc2e4 \ub180\ub784\ub9cc\ud55c \uac83\uc774 \ud558\ub098\ub3c4 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc624\ub798 \uc0b0 &#8216;\uae30\uc5b5\uacfc \uacbd\ud5d8\uc758 \ucd95\uc801&#8217; \ud0d3\uc778\uac00.. \uc544\ubb34\ub9ac \uc9c4\uc9dc \uaca8\uc6b8, 1\uc6d4\uc774 \ubcc4\ubcfc\uc77c \uc5c6\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, 2\uc6d4\uacfc 3\uc6d4\uc774 \uaca8\uc6b8\uc758 \uc9c4\uba74\ubaa9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec \uc904 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc0dd\uac01\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc744 \uc548\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc9c0\ub09c 20\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \uadf8\ub807\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0 \ucd94\uc138\uc758 \uc608\uc678\uac00 \ubc14\ub85c \uc791\ub144 \ud55c \ud574\uc600\ub2e4. \uc88c\uc6b0\uc9c0\uac04, \uaf43\ub4e4\uc774 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